MONTHLY RANGE PUTS EURO AUD AT MAJOR CROSSROADS

After completing a Bear Crown setup that led to a strong downtrend of over 1,000 Pips, the EURO AUD is now at a crossroads that could either lead to more gains for the Aussie or a strong trend change altogether.

The Chart below shows how this downtrend began, the breaks of the Uptrend Lines and the current Pennant setup that the pair has now formed. 


DAILY CHART



















Bull and Bear Crowns as well as the breaks of Trend Lines are typically what we see when major trend changes take place. Traders can either enter at the start and hold trades for long periods or can aggressively trade the waves of the trend. As this trend continued to create lower lows, the Monthly Range of the pair was also breached. Trends that reach this important price point will either pause for a period before resuming the trend or change direction. In the chart below, we can see that this pause took the form of a Pennant that was eventually broken, indicating that we could see a continuation of the downtrend. 



DAILY CHART

















On the other hand, as we can also see from the chart above, the current Pennant that has been formed has moved the pair above the Inner Downtrend Line. This could indicate that the current downtrend may actually be coming to an end, given the slow and unconvincing breakout from the larger Pennant. Currency pairs can exceed their Monthly Ranges to give the impression that the trend will continue but the longer the trend takes to get going, the more likely that a trend change will take place. The chart below shows how these two scenarios could unfold.



DAILY CHART 


















A simple bearish breakout from the Pennant could be the signal required to continue the existing trend. If the candle given to start this breakout is strong enough, entry can take place there with the appropriate target of between 100 and 200 Pips. However, this Pennant may also be the Centre Tip of a possible Bull Crown that starts a new trend above the Downtrend Lines. One would have to wait for a Right Tip that completes the Bull Crown or another formation before considering entry to go long. Strong trend changes require strong setups and the current Pennant is not large enough to support a trend change. 


Only time will tell what takes place with this currency pair. Regardless of the ultimate direction, we can take advantage by patiently waiting on the appropriate Daily and 4 Hour Chart signals for profitable trades.



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Duane Shepherd 
(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)
Currency Analyst/Trader
Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com
Twitter: @WorldWide876
Facebook: DRFXTRADING 

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