MAJOR BREAKOUT TO CONTINUE ON CHF JPY



Following the start of a sharp Bullish breakout from its large Pennant Consolidation, this pair has taken a bit of a pause before it resumes the sharp rate of gains for the Swiss Franc. This pause in the breakout is what I refer to as the Mid Point of the Breakout. It is where the pair will form a smaller pattern of Consolidation such as a Pennant or Range before continuing to the major target of the Breakout Equivalent.

Whenever Consolidation patterns are broken, they will ultimately go to this Breakout Equivalent target before either pausing for a very long time or reversing all together. This concept can be seen across all time frames and for both Ranges and Pennant Consolidations. The accurate measurement of this target helps traders to confidently identify their Limit Orders in their trade setups without the need to monitor the trade for signs of pullbacks. One can confidently leave the trade to move towards this area knowing that this target will be hit 95% of time once identified.

There are times when the market will move quickly to this area with very few pullbacks along the way and there are times when it takes a breather before resuming its breakout. If it takes a pause during the breakout, it will provide another profitable entry point for traders who would have exited their first trade at this area.

The larger the Consolidation, the larger the breakout and the greater the distance to be covered to reach its ultimate target. Given the size of this Consolidation on the Daily Chart of the CHF JPY, traders have a very large number of Pips that they will be able to capture once the breakout resumes.


DAILY CHART

























This breakout has taken place within the context of a strong Uptrend that began from a low of 78.35 in July of 2012, providing added momentum to this Bullish move.


DAILY CHART

























The Bullish signal that started the breakout came on November 3, following which the pair rallied quickly by 647 Pips over a 25 day period.


DAILY CHART

























After reaching this area, we can now see the gradual formation of a possible Consolidation setup in the form of a Range. If we see a U-Turn from its current price in the next few days towards Resistance, the Support and the Range will be complete.


DAILY CHART


























If we then see a strong enough Bullish Breakout Candle to resume the breakout, we will enter accordingly to take advantage of the rally. Assuming this Range is formed, we would now have two possible targets to aim for during this breakout.


DAILY CHART
















After ensuring that the trade setup meets our criteria, we will then need to decide which of these targets to choose. We could see the pair rally towards the Breakout Equivalent of the Range and then pause for a few days or weeks before continuing to the 2nd Breakout Equivalent. It could also bypass that 1st target with very few pullbacks or pauses to then hit the 2nd target. This decision can be avoided, however, if our targeted range of Pips is achieved prior to these areas being reached. If on the other hand, our target range coincides with any of these points, then our Limit Order will be based on our criteria for trading these types of scenarios.




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Duane Shepherd
(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)
Currency Analyst/Trader
Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com
Twitter: @WorldWide876
Facebook: DRFXTRADING
Website: www.drfxswingtrading.com

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