KIWI DOLLAR- TEMPTING BEARISH SIGNAL FOR HUNDREDS OF PIPS
This pair has been in a very large Pennant setup for the last 3 years since the end of the strong 2-Year Uptrend between 2009 and 2011. We have been hovering on top of the Resistance of this Consolidation for the last few weeks and could see the start of a new Downtrend to carry us back down to Support. A strong Bearish Candle signal has been given in this regard below the current Uptrend Line and this Resistance, but the accompanying setup for the signal is too weak to justify entry. Nevertheless, a stronger setup could materialize this month to either continue the break Bearish, or provide a platform for a strong Bullish reversal.
The strong Uptrend that came to an end represented the return of Risk-Appetite to the market following the period of Safe-Haven buying of US Dollars in 2008. This has given way to a very wide Pennant within which we have been experiencing waves of smaller Uptrends and Downtrends.
Closer to home, so to speak, the pair has formed a Range above the Resistance of this Pennant. It has now broken the Support of this Range as well as that Resistance boundary to possibly start a very strong Downtrend. In the process, it has also broken below an Outer Uptrend Line.
Taking a closer look, we can see the strong Bearish Candle that broke below these barriers. On the face of it, this could be a signal to start entering short to take advantage of the potential drop of just under 400 Pips.
However, the setup is neither a Consolidation nor a strong Counter Trend Line - setups that you would expect/require after a large 300- Pip decline. This means that until we have a clearer, stronger setup at this crossroads, the chance of a Bearish trend is now equal to that of a Bullish rally that breaks the Downtrend Line.
While the market provides us with this setup that we need before trading, it is important that we constantly review past examples of this scenario. This will allow us to confidently trade the new signal in either direction and capture hundreds of pips that are likely to be on offer for us.
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